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So how to look at this is after we are under twenty% about the X-axis (lower than 20% drinking water in the oil), there is zero to the y-axis (the h2o is not going to move with the rock in the slightest degree). As we get over 20% drinking water saturation, the move of water will increase promptly, till previously mentioned eighty% drinking water, there is not any flow of oil in any respect.
Euan has questioned whether or not a rise in h2o cut like this might have a sizable more than enough impact on manufacturing to clarify all of the declines we see. Allow me to test for making an estimate on how significant it could be. We are not able to do this with any precision with the fractional circulation curve for the reason that we don't have an exact fractional movement curve for this A part of Ghawar. Even so, There exists other information in Paper #93439 which allows us estimate this. In particular, the paper incorporates a discussion of what fraction of manufacturing comes from driving the flood front, compared to before the flood front.
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It doesn't appear to me that, from a timing point of here view, this phenomenon is well put to explain any declines that offset whatsoever portion of the 690kbd of Qatif megaproject creation arrived on in late 2004 and early 2005 (zones B-D).